The recent floods in the northern districts of Bangladesh especially in Thakurgaon, Dinajpur and Lalmonirhat districts caused great sufferings to farmers. Usually, farmers prepare their paddy fields for the main crop Aman by the last week of the Bengali month of Ashar. But the sudden arrival of flood waters has taken the farmers in the northern districts, considered not flood-prone, totally unprepared. They have lost their paddy saplings and are waiting for the flood water to recede. Unless timely assistance is rendered by the government and GOs, the farmers may not be able to grow their main crop Aman this year in the flood affected areas. While the northern districts of Thakurgaon, Dinajpur, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur and parts of Bogra and Sirajganj struggle with this untimely flooding, farmers of north western Bogra and Joypuhat districts on the contrary are still waiting in vain for rain to prepare their fields for Aman crop.

Unfortunately, this has become common nowadays for farmers in Bangladesh, India and Nepal who still depend on steady and timely rainfall for farming. Scientists trace the erratic behaviour of monsoon rain to climate change and global warming.

The Indian meteorological department in a recent report mentioned a record rainfall of 385 millimetres in the first two weeks of June this year, which is 440 per cent higher than the usual rainfall in the monsoon season. The heavy rains in the northern states of Uttarkhand, India and parts of Nepal have caused unprecedented flooding in the region. In Uttarkhand alone, over 5,000 people are feared dead and over 50,000 displaced due to the heavy rain-induced flood.

Researchers observe that the cataclysmic flood in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand in June 2013 is yet another stark reminder of the things to come with global warming. It is feared that the rainfall patterns in India might become much more variable due to climate change. If the prediction of the scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research becomes a reality, millions of farmers will be at risk.

The World Bank on June 13, 2013 released a research paper suggesting that “the rising possibility of a warmer world in the next two decades is magnifying the development challenges”. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim made a statement in connection with the release of the paper saying, “The scientists tell us that if the world warms by 2°c – warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years – it will cause widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat-waves and more intense cyclones. In the near-term, climate change, which is already unfolding, could greatly harm the lives and the hopes of individuals and families who have had little hand in raising the earth’s temperature.”

A leading Indian daily the Times of India further reports that scientists have found that the pattern of the Indian monsoon will change under global warming in near future. It further reports that the Indian monsoon rainfall is likely to increase under global warming. Quoting the scientists, the Indian daily reports that a 4 to 12 per cent variability change of daily monsoon rainfall in India is to be expected with 1 degree celsius of warming. The unabated emission of Green House Gases (GHG) in the atmosphere may encourage up to 13 to 50 per cent change in variability of monsoon rain. Analysts say even if global warming could be limited to the internationally acknowledged threshold of 2 degree celsius, the risk of additional day-to-day variability of monsoon rainfall between 8 – 24 per cent will remain. As recorded, about 80 per cent of annual rainfall in India and Bangladesh occurs during the monsoon season from June through September.

Extreme rainfall bears the risk of flooding and crop failure. One of the leading authors of the research study of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Anders Levermann considers that ‘focusing on the average is not always useful. If rainfall comes in a spell and is followed by a drought, this can be devastating even if the average is normal. This requires the right kind of adaptation measures that account for this variability – such as intelligent insurance schemes, for example’.

A separate research team led by Yukiko Hirabayashi at the University of Tokyo’s Institute of Engineering Innovation, found that ‘global warming will increase the risk of flooding at the end of this century in 42 per cent of the Earth’s land surface, including parts of India, Southeast Asia and Africa.’ The Japanese research team believes that the number of people exposed to the risk of flooding would increase from the current estimate of 5.6 million to 80 million by 2100 if temperature rises by 3.5 degrees during the period.

Considering the real threats of global warming, scientists are advocating for concerted efforts and measures that could help reduce worldwide GHG emissions. Also the governments are urged to reorient their development plans and strategies so that climate change is factored into their planning process.

Mushfiqur Rahman, a mining engineer, writes on energy and environmental issues. [email protected]